MADRID - Donald Trump's second term is consolidating a consensus that, just a few years ago, seemed unthinkable: the power of the United States is in constant retreat, leaving strategic vacuums that other global players are quick to fill.

This loss of influence is not just an external perception fueled by rival powers. Within the West, and particularly in Europe, political elites have started to see Washington not as an unshakeable ally, but as a factor of instability and even a threat to their own interests.

The conflict in Ukraine is, for many European analysts, a test of this new reality. A decade or two ago, the war initiated by Russia would have been unthinkable. Back then, American power was so overwhelming that it rarely needed to be exercised directly: its prestige and ability to intimidate were enough to deter any serious challenge to the global order.

Bruno Maçes, former Secretary of State for European Affairs in Portugal, recalls that in 2008, the mere hint—ambiguous, but palpable—that Washington might intervene to stop the Russian invasion of Georgia was enough to make Vladimir Putin halt his advance before reaching the capital, Tbilisi. Today, that balance has changed drastically.

It's not so much about debating whether Maçes' analysis of Georgia is correct, but rather acknowledging how, even from liberal positions in Europe, the loss of U.S. power is no longer a hypothesis but an accepted fact.

In media outlets like the Financial Times, the term that best defines this retreat is "humiliating." From their perspective, recent events have allowed the Kremlin to show that Washington has lost the ability to halt key strategic movements, even when it is fully aware of them.

While the White House insists that it does not seek to escalate the conflict, Russia has recruited 16,000 foreign fighters from Syria and bombed a base on the Polish border used by Western military advisers. From Moscow’s viewpoint, these moves are seen as evidence of American impotence to alter the course of events, reinforcing the idea of a declining global leadership.

Gideon Rachman, chief foreign affairs columnist for the Financial Times, bluntly sums it up: "The United States can no longer be considered a reliable ally for the Europeans. But the political ambitions of the Trump administration for Europe mean that, for now, the U.S. is also an adversary, threatening democracy in Europe and even its territory, like in the case of Greenland." A statement that, just a few years ago, would have been inconceivable.

Donald Trump’s repeated threats to impose tariffs on his closest allies, whether to force concessions on other issues or simply as retaliation for their trade surpluses with the United States, can hardly be considered a gesture of friendship. This is warned by prominent representatives of European liberalism, who see these pressures as yet another symptom of the deterioration in the transatlantic relationship.

But trade tensions are just part of the problem. Trump, Elon Musk, J.D. Vance, and the rest of the MAGA team have moved from rhetoric to action, openly supporting anti-liberal forces in Europe. Their goal is nothing less than to force a sweeping regime change across the continent, though without resorting to military intervention. The signs are unmistakable: Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary, is a frequent guest at Mar-a-Lago. Vance, for his part, chose to meet in Munich with Alice Weidel, co-chair of the far-right party Alternative for Germany, while avoiding any meeting with Chancellor Olaf Scholz. His statement that the greatest challenge to Europe is the “internal threat” was a direct and unapologetic attack on the continent's political order.

In light of this scenario, European analysts warn that the conflict between Europe and the United States is no longer an ideological issue, but a strategic one. The conclusion is clear: Europe must prepare for the moment when the U.S. security guarantee disappears completely. This involves not only strengthening Europe’s defense industry but also accepting an increasingly deep fracture with Washington.

"The transatlantic bond is crumbling," former NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen stated recently. And the consequences of this fracture are already visible within the European Union itself. While countries like France, Germany, and Spain seek to craft a common response from Brussels, other member states, such as Italy and Hungary, are aligning more and more with the vision promoted by Trump and his administration.

The debate is no longer just political, but a matter of security. Germany’s incoming chancellor, Friedrich Merz, was blunt in a recent interview: "Germany must completely rethink its defense agreements and end decades of dependence on Washington." A message that, in earlier times, would have been unthinkable in the heart of Europe.

All these analyses point to a conclusion that is difficult to ignore: the influence of the United States, both militarily and politically, is crumbling. What was once upheld through a combination of prestige and deterrence is now being questioned—not only by rival powers but also by former allies who, perceiving Washington’s growing irrelevance on the global stage, are beginning to seek alternatives.

One of these alternatives is China. In a clear sign of a possible thaw between the EU and Beijing, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called this month for a renewed effort to improve relations between Brussels and Beijing.

Although the 27 EU member states do not have a unified position on China, the relationship with Beijing has been marked by trade tensions and China’s support for Russia in its war against Ukraine. However, during Trump’s first term and even with Joe Biden in the White House, the U.S. pressure on Europe to adopt a more hawkish stance towards China was constant, exacerbating internal divisions within the EU. In 2019, the bloc labeled China a “systemic rival,” aligning with a narrative not shared by all European countries.

What is clear is that, in a context where the United States no longer has the capacity or the will to impose its global political narrative, the cracks in the transatlantic relationship are becoming more visible. The EU, feeling increasingly disconnected from Washington’s interests and approaches, is beginning to reconsider its alliances.